Development and Forecast of CoViD-19 infections in Germany
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- Analyses based on data from 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE (Download: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/web-data/data/cases_time.csv) and Robert Koch Institut (RKI) (Download: https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv).
- For predicting future newly infected persons and deaths data from the last 14 days were used. Predictors are 'weekday' (nominal scaled factor, seven levels) and 'day' (since outbreak in Germany; interval scaled). Citerium is the natural logarithm of new daily deaths/newly infected persons per day.
- 'Herd immunity' is assumed if 70% of population was infected (green dahsed line).
- Raw data of 'infectious' persons are not available for all countries. Therefore, number of currently infectious persons is estimated on base of data on diagnosed infections. Infected persons are usually infectious for about seven days. They are usually tested after showing first symptoms, but are already infectious a few days before. Therefore, number of infectious persons is computed by adding the newly infected persons of the last four days, today and the next two days.
- Ifo Institut (ifo) and Helmholtz-Centre for Infektionsforschung (HZI) assume that 'Contact Tracing' (without an App) is possible if less than 300 persons per day (Germany) are newly infected (blue dahsed line). Consequently, contact tracing can be assumed possible if less than 2.100 are infectious at the same time (orange dahsed line) (numbers for Germany; numbers for other countries are estimated based on population).
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